The Recession 2009 forum

I would like to set up a recession2009 forum - where we can all exchange thoughts and ideas.

Chat on twitter -

 http://twitter.com/recession2009

or email me at

recession.recession@googlemail.com

hope to chat to you all soon.

Latest figures confirm the Great British Recession

July 2, 2009

LONDON: The recession is now on a par with the very worst year of the Great Depression. Revised figures on Tuesday uncovered the full extent of Britain's economic contraction.

The economy shrank by 4.9 per cent in the year to the first quarter of 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall in gross domestic product was far greater than previously calculated, as the government statistician realised the full scale of the fall in company activity.

"Clearly this is now the worst peacetime recession since the 1930s," said economist Michael Saunders of Citigroup. The worst contraction then was a year of about -5 per cent and "this year will not be hugely different".

The contraction in GDP during the first quarter alone was 2.4 per cent - the previous estimate was 1.9 per cent. This was the biggest one-quarter fall in 35 years.

read full article at  The Sydney morning herald

Latest figures confirm the Great British Recession

July 2, 2009

LONDON: The recession is now on a par with the very worst year of the Great Depression. Revised figures on Tuesday uncovered the full extent of Britain's economic contraction.

The economy shrank by 4.9 per cent in the year to the first quarter of 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall in gross domestic product was far greater than previously calculated, as the government statistician realised the full scale of the fall in company activity.

"Clearly this is now the worst peacetime recession since the 1930s," said economist Michael Saunders of Citigroup. The worst contraction then was a year of about -5 per cent and "this year will not be hugely different".

The contraction in GDP during the first quarter alone was 2.4 per cent - the previous estimate was 1.9 per cent. This was the biggest one-quarter fall in 35 years.

read full article at  The Sydney morning herald

Indicators of economic depression ending-- Google searches vs. job losses

read the full article at examiner.com

Larry Summers, Obama's top economic advisor has summed up the state of the economy today in what Forbes online is calling "promising", but somewhat "obscure" signs of recovery.

 

The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

• "Earlier this year traders were betting there was a one-in-six chance that the Dow would fall below 5,000, he said. Now they say it's one-in-a-hundred.


• The chances that corporate bonds will default has fallen by a third.


• And Google searches for 'economic depression,' which surged to quadruple their normal levels, have since returned to normal. (A growing number of economists do believe that the recession has ended or will end in coming months.)"

read the full article at  examiner.com

Indicators of economic depression ending-- Google searches vs. job losses

read the full article at examiner.com

Larry Summers, Obama's top economic advisor has summed up the state of the economy today in what Forbes online is calling "promising", but somewhat "obscure" signs of recovery.

 

The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

• "Earlier this year traders were betting there was a one-in-six chance that the Dow would fall below 5,000, he said. Now they say it's one-in-a-hundred.


• The chances that corporate bonds will default has fallen by a third.


• And Google searches for 'economic depression,' which surged to quadruple their normal levels, have since returned to normal. (A growing number of economists do believe that the recession has ended or will end in coming months.)"

read the full article at  examiner.com

Updated: Should we help the banks

Click here to see video of Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown says the government will do 'everything it takes' to support the economy

Gordon Brown video

The Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott, assesses the government's latest banking bail-out



We I'm in two minds regarding this, I know that we really don't have any choice but I think the banks the should not only loan to business but also loan to the their customers.

Why should we keep or money in banks, their have wasted / loss billions of pounds in bad deals and investments - so why are we having to help out these private companies.

I don't fully understand but if we loss the banks to who economy would crash, but why use tax payers money. The issue I feel the most strongly about is what is the bank doing with this money, and who is it helping.  Is this securing peoples own investments, shares and pensions.

Now I privately rent my flat and I use public transport, so these actions taken by the Government - reducing vat and lowering interest rates has not benefited me at all. Transport cost have in increased by up to 10%, rent has not reduced like peoples mortgages. In the present economic situation you are not really able to ask for a pay rise, because if you have a job you are luck.

When the banks were offering 5 times and 100% mortgages, I was unsure because of the finical commitment. But what I feel is the people that over mortgages them self's either knowingly or accidental have been bald out by the government. But people like me who was not sure I could commit to the monthly re payments is know stuck, because the deposits are so high I can't afford to pay my rent, bills and save for a deposit.

I know that this money to the banks is intended to go towards business, but maybe reduce tax on people earning below £25,000 per years, because this will give people money in their pockets to spend in the high street.





Bank shares in free fall despite bail-out

Bank shares plummeted today amid concerns that the latest government package to stabilise banks and encourage lending would not solve the deepening economic crisis.

Royal Bank of Scotland was the biggest faller in the FTSE 100 share index, its price collapsing by more than 66%, to 11.6p, after it warned ofthe largest loss in British corporate history of up to £28bn and its chief executive, Stephen Hester, admitted that full-scale nationalisation of the bank had been considered.

The taxpayer already owns 58% of RBS but this will soon rise to 68% when £5bn of preference shares owned by the government are converted into ordinary shares.

The first day of dealing in shares of the newly created Lloyds Banking Group resulted in a 34% drop to 65p. The bank, which now has more branches than any of its rivals, issued a trading statement insisting that Lloyds TSB had been trading "satisfactorily", while HBOS, which it rescued in a deal brokered by Gordon Brown, had not suffered any "significant change" in its trading position.

Unlike RBS, Lloyds TSB is not asking the government to convert the preference shares it owns in the combined bank into ordinary shares, which means the taxpayers' stake is staying at 44%.

Eric Daniels, the chief executive of Lloyds, said the bank was "continuing its ongoing constructive dialogue" with the government about the wide range of measures announced today. Among them is a plan to sell insurance to banks to help them cap the losses on loans that have turned sour in the credit crunch.

HSBC, the only bank listed on the stockmarket not to have raised any fresh funds, insisted it would not need to use the government insurance scheme.

"HSBC has not sought capital support from the UK government and cannot envisage circumstances where such action would be necessary," the bank said. "HSBC has long been one of the world's most strongly capitalised banks and is committed to maintaining this position."

Shares in HSBC closed down 6.5% at 501p amid persistent talk that it would need to raise funds, which has been widely predicted since analysts at Morgan Stanley said last week that the bank may need as a much as £20bn of extra funds.

Barclays shares – which lost a quarter of their value in a frenzied hour of trading on Friday – recovered many of their losses early on but closed down another 10%, at 88p.

To participate in the government's insurance scheme, Barclays would need to sell preference shares to the government or find cash to cover the cost of the guarantee. John Varley, the bank's chief executive, is thought to be determined not to sell such shares to the government, even though they would not appear on the bank's shareholder register.

The bank has yet to decide whether to participate in the insurance scheme. Varley said he welcomed the range of announcements today. "The government has worked hard to construct practical and extensive measures to help the UK economy," he said. "The programme is made up of a number of important initiatives in the areas of capital ratios, funding and asset protection."

He added that Barclays would work with the tripartite authorities – the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority – over the coming days "to understand the detail of the programme and to determine how it can be used to best effect on behalf of customers, shareholders and the wider economy".

RBS expects to use the scheme and Hester admitted today that he expected the bank to be "guinea pig". He admitted total nationalisation of RBS had been discussed with the government. "It was discussed as something we all wish to avoid," he said.

Bruce Packard, banks analyst at the stockbroker Evolution, said: "These share price movements tell you that the government has gone around and said the bank bail-out in October hasn't worked and if they hadn't done that I don't think we'd be in this position.

"I'm a banks analyst and I don't want to criticise the government. They did the right thing in the second half of October but I'm not sure they're doing the right thing now." He has a price target for RBS shares of 18p

sourced from The Guardian

UK banking plan faces criticism

The government's latest plan to counter the economic downturn by encouraging lending has been criticised, and sent banks' shares tumbling.

Opposition MPs argued that the government's measures were inadequate and too many details remained unknown.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the move, which centres on state insurance for banks, was essential to help protect jobs.

Business leaders have raised concerns over how much the plan will cost.

The latest government package is the second major set of measures to encourage banks to lend to individuals and businesses, as credit remains scarce or expensive to obtain.

The news sent banking shares down sharply, with Royal Bank of Scotland closing down 67%.

The bank's warning that it could see record losses for 2008 compounded worries about the state of the finance sector.

'Turbulent times'

But the prime minister said that without the new schemes, jobs may have been "needlessly" lost at healthy firms struggling to gain access to necessary funding.

"Good businesses must have access to credit," said the prime minister.

"It is because of this that we are taking the action to expand lending."

Shadow chancellor George Osborne said the details of Monday's package remained a "mystery".

Mr Osborne added that the prime minister "hasn't saved this economy and he hasn't even saved the British banks yet".

Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman Vince Cable said the government's latest plans were inadequate, urging instead for the whole banking sector to be nationalised.

"The government must bite the bullet on the public ownership and control of the banks to ensure that lending is maintained to sound companies who can keep the economy ticking over in these turbulent times," he said.

What we've said is 'you've got to lend about £6bn more to businesses and to people' and the RBS Group have agreed to that Chancellor Alistair Darling

The long list of policies includes a scheme to offer insurance against banks losing more money from the bad debts that started the credit crunch.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to be able to buy assets direct from firms.

The government would not reveal how much the latest plan would cost the taxpayer.

Four key points

Here are the key points of the government's latest announcement:

• Banks will be able to take up government insurance against their expected bad debts

• The Bank of England will be able to buy up to £50bn worth of assets in companies in all sectors of the economy

• Northern Rock has been given extra time to repay its loans from the government

• The government is increasing its stake in RBS to nearly 70% from 58%. RBS also said it was set to report a huge loss for 2008, with asset write-downs of up to £20bn.

Insurance plans

Under the insurance scheme, banks will agree with the government the amount they expect to lose from particular debt.

The Treasury will then sell insurance against about 90% of the institutions' additional losses from the debt.

Chancellor Alistair Darling told the BBC that banks taking out the insurance would have to make "very specific legally binding agreements to lend more money".

Under the Bank of England's new role, it will be able to buy up to £50bn of high quality assets, such as bonds and loans, directly from companies

Northern Rock extension

There have also been changes to the terms of previous bank rescues.

The government has given Northern Rock longer to repay its loans from the government.

There was concern that the timetable for repaying the loans was forcing Northern Rock to reduce its mortgage lending too quickly.

Separately, RBS said it had agreed with the Treasury to swap the £5bn of preference shares the government holds for new ordinary shares, increasing the government's stake from 58% to nearly 70%.

The swap will reduce RBS's annual payments to the government as preference shares have a higher guaranteed rate of return than ordinary shares.

sourced from The BBC

Updated: Should we help the banks

Click here to see video of Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown says the government will do 'everything it takes' to support the economy

Gordon Brown video

The Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott, assesses the government's latest banking bail-out



We I'm in two minds regarding this, I know that we really don't have any choice but I think the banks the should not only loan to business but also loan to the their customers.

Why should we keep or money in banks, their have wasted / loss billions of pounds in bad deals and investments - so why are we having to help out these private companies.

I don't fully understand but if we loss the banks to who economy would crash, but why use tax payers money. The issue I feel the most strongly about is what is the bank doing with this money, and who is it helping.  Is this securing peoples own investments, shares and pensions.

Now I privately rent my flat and I use public transport, so these actions taken by the Government - reducing vat and lowering interest rates has not benefited me at all. Transport cost have in increased by up to 10%, rent has not reduced like peoples mortgages. In the present economic situation you are not really able to ask for a pay rise, because if you have a job you are luck.

When the banks were offering 5 times and 100% mortgages, I was unsure because of the finical commitment. But what I feel is the people that over mortgages them self's either knowingly or accidental have been bald out by the government. But people like me who was not sure I could commit to the monthly re payments is know stuck, because the deposits are so high I can't afford to pay my rent, bills and save for a deposit.

I know that this money to the banks is intended to go towards business, but maybe reduce tax on people earning below £25,000 per years, because this will give people money in their pockets to spend in the high street.





Bank shares in free fall despite bail-out

Bank shares plummeted today amid concerns that the latest government package to stabilise banks and encourage lending would not solve the deepening economic crisis.

Royal Bank of Scotland was the biggest faller in the FTSE 100 share index, its price collapsing by more than 66%, to 11.6p, after it warned ofthe largest loss in British corporate history of up to £28bn and its chief executive, Stephen Hester, admitted that full-scale nationalisation of the bank had been considered.

The taxpayer already owns 58% of RBS but this will soon rise to 68% when £5bn of preference shares owned by the government are converted into ordinary shares.

The first day of dealing in shares of the newly created Lloyds Banking Group resulted in a 34% drop to 65p. The bank, which now has more branches than any of its rivals, issued a trading statement insisting that Lloyds TSB had been trading "satisfactorily", while HBOS, which it rescued in a deal brokered by Gordon Brown, had not suffered any "significant change" in its trading position.

Unlike RBS, Lloyds TSB is not asking the government to convert the preference shares it owns in the combined bank into ordinary shares, which means the taxpayers' stake is staying at 44%.

Eric Daniels, the chief executive of Lloyds, said the bank was "continuing its ongoing constructive dialogue" with the government about the wide range of measures announced today. Among them is a plan to sell insurance to banks to help them cap the losses on loans that have turned sour in the credit crunch.

HSBC, the only bank listed on the stockmarket not to have raised any fresh funds, insisted it would not need to use the government insurance scheme.

"HSBC has not sought capital support from the UK government and cannot envisage circumstances where such action would be necessary," the bank said. "HSBC has long been one of the world's most strongly capitalised banks and is committed to maintaining this position."

Shares in HSBC closed down 6.5% at 501p amid persistent talk that it would need to raise funds, which has been widely predicted since analysts at Morgan Stanley said last week that the bank may need as a much as £20bn of extra funds.

Barclays shares – which lost a quarter of their value in a frenzied hour of trading on Friday – recovered many of their losses early on but closed down another 10%, at 88p.

To participate in the government's insurance scheme, Barclays would need to sell preference shares to the government or find cash to cover the cost of the guarantee. John Varley, the bank's chief executive, is thought to be determined not to sell such shares to the government, even though they would not appear on the bank's shareholder register.

The bank has yet to decide whether to participate in the insurance scheme. Varley said he welcomed the range of announcements today. "The government has worked hard to construct practical and extensive measures to help the UK economy," he said. "The programme is made up of a number of important initiatives in the areas of capital ratios, funding and asset protection."

He added that Barclays would work with the tripartite authorities – the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority – over the coming days "to understand the detail of the programme and to determine how it can be used to best effect on behalf of customers, shareholders and the wider economy".

RBS expects to use the scheme and Hester admitted today that he expected the bank to be "guinea pig". He admitted total nationalisation of RBS had been discussed with the government. "It was discussed as something we all wish to avoid," he said.

Bruce Packard, banks analyst at the stockbroker Evolution, said: "These share price movements tell you that the government has gone around and said the bank bail-out in October hasn't worked and if they hadn't done that I don't think we'd be in this position.

"I'm a banks analyst and I don't want to criticise the government. They did the right thing in the second half of October but I'm not sure they're doing the right thing now." He has a price target for RBS shares of 18p

sourced from The Guardian

UK banking plan faces criticism

The government's latest plan to counter the economic downturn by encouraging lending has been criticised, and sent banks' shares tumbling.

Opposition MPs argued that the government's measures were inadequate and too many details remained unknown.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the move, which centres on state insurance for banks, was essential to help protect jobs.

Business leaders have raised concerns over how much the plan will cost.

The latest government package is the second major set of measures to encourage banks to lend to individuals and businesses, as credit remains scarce or expensive to obtain.

The news sent banking shares down sharply, with Royal Bank of Scotland closing down 67%.

The bank's warning that it could see record losses for 2008 compounded worries about the state of the finance sector.

'Turbulent times'

But the prime minister said that without the new schemes, jobs may have been "needlessly" lost at healthy firms struggling to gain access to necessary funding.

"Good businesses must have access to credit," said the prime minister.

"It is because of this that we are taking the action to expand lending."

Shadow chancellor George Osborne said the details of Monday's package remained a "mystery".

Mr Osborne added that the prime minister "hasn't saved this economy and he hasn't even saved the British banks yet".

Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman Vince Cable said the government's latest plans were inadequate, urging instead for the whole banking sector to be nationalised.

"The government must bite the bullet on the public ownership and control of the banks to ensure that lending is maintained to sound companies who can keep the economy ticking over in these turbulent times," he said.

What we've said is 'you've got to lend about £6bn more to businesses and to people' and the RBS Group have agreed to that Chancellor Alistair Darling

The long list of policies includes a scheme to offer insurance against banks losing more money from the bad debts that started the credit crunch.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to be able to buy assets direct from firms.

The government would not reveal how much the latest plan would cost the taxpayer.

Four key points

Here are the key points of the government's latest announcement:

• Banks will be able to take up government insurance against their expected bad debts

• The Bank of England will be able to buy up to £50bn worth of assets in companies in all sectors of the economy

• Northern Rock has been given extra time to repay its loans from the government

• The government is increasing its stake in RBS to nearly 70% from 58%. RBS also said it was set to report a huge loss for 2008, with asset write-downs of up to £20bn.

Insurance plans

Under the insurance scheme, banks will agree with the government the amount they expect to lose from particular debt.

The Treasury will then sell insurance against about 90% of the institutions' additional losses from the debt.

Chancellor Alistair Darling told the BBC that banks taking out the insurance would have to make "very specific legally binding agreements to lend more money".

Under the Bank of England's new role, it will be able to buy up to £50bn of high quality assets, such as bonds and loans, directly from companies

Northern Rock extension

There have also been changes to the terms of previous bank rescues.

The government has given Northern Rock longer to repay its loans from the government.

There was concern that the timetable for repaying the loans was forcing Northern Rock to reduce its mortgage lending too quickly.

Separately, RBS said it had agreed with the Treasury to swap the £5bn of preference shares the government holds for new ordinary shares, increasing the government's stake from 58% to nearly 70%.

The swap will reduce RBS's annual payments to the government as preference shares have a higher guaranteed rate of return than ordinary shares.

sourced from The BBC

UK recession set to be confirmed

The UK is set to go into recession on Friday 23rd January 2009

The Press  Association

The UK's slide into recession is due to be confirmed on Friday when output figures for the fourth quarter of 2008 are released.

The contraction in Britain's economy for the final three months of the year follows a 0.6% decline in GDP for the third quarter - a 'technical' recession as defined by two successive quarters of negative output.

Experts, including the deputy Governor of the Bank of England Sir John Gieve, have warned that the contraction will be sharp.

Most economists are forecasting that the economy shrank at double the pace seen the previous quarter.

A 1.2% decline in GDP would be the worst performance since the third quarter of 1990, at the height of the last recession, when GDP also fell 1.2%.

However, some experts are warning that the decline could be as much as 1.3%, which would be the biggest fall in more than 28 years.

GDP would last have fallen by more in the second quarter of 1980, when it plunged by 1.8%. The annual rate of output in 2008 is also set to make for grim reading in what will be a far cry from the 3% seen in 2007.

It will also make the Treasury's initial forecasts for growth of between 2% and 2.5% look woefully optimistic.

This year is predicted to be far worse, with the economy forecast by some to shrink by 2% or even closer to 3% in what could be the biggest decline since the Second World War.

In a week dominated by economic news, inflation figures are also due out on Tuesday and minutes of this month's Bank of England interest rates meeting will follow on Wednesday.

The reduction in VAT together with the recession's impact on demand and firms' pricing power is set to have pulled inflation down again sharply, to 2.6% in December.

The predicted drop in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) marks an exceptionally steep decline on the 4.1% seen in November and will likely lead to further fears over deflation.

article sourced from The Press Association

UK recession set to be confirmed

The UK is set to go into recession on Friday 23rd January 2009

The Press  Association

The UK's slide into recession is due to be confirmed on Friday when output figures for the fourth quarter of 2008 are released.

The contraction in Britain's economy for the final three months of the year follows a 0.6% decline in GDP for the third quarter - a 'technical' recession as defined by two successive quarters of negative output.

Experts, including the deputy Governor of the Bank of England Sir John Gieve, have warned that the contraction will be sharp.

Most economists are forecasting that the economy shrank at double the pace seen the previous quarter.

A 1.2% decline in GDP would be the worst performance since the third quarter of 1990, at the height of the last recession, when GDP also fell 1.2%.

However, some experts are warning that the decline could be as much as 1.3%, which would be the biggest fall in more than 28 years.

GDP would last have fallen by more in the second quarter of 1980, when it plunged by 1.8%. The annual rate of output in 2008 is also set to make for grim reading in what will be a far cry from the 3% seen in 2007.

It will also make the Treasury's initial forecasts for growth of between 2% and 2.5% look woefully optimistic.

This year is predicted to be far worse, with the economy forecast by some to shrink by 2% or even closer to 3% in what could be the biggest decline since the Second World War.

In a week dominated by economic news, inflation figures are also due out on Tuesday and minutes of this month's Bank of England interest rates meeting will follow on Wednesday.

The reduction in VAT together with the recession's impact on demand and firms' pricing power is set to have pulled inflation down again sharply, to 2.6% in December.

The predicted drop in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) marks an exceptionally steep decline on the 4.1% seen in November and will likely lead to further fears over deflation.

article sourced from The Press Association

Finance crisis: In graphics

This is one of the most tumultuous times on record in the global financial markets.

The financial landscape is going through a period of upheaval with some major firms folding, other operations merging and a limited number of companies in both the Europe and the US, being rescued by governments.

BILLION-DOLLAR BAIL-OUTS

Governments have spent billions of dollars on rescue packages, led by the US with its $700bn rescue package.

soured from The BBC read full article

Finance crisis: In graphics

This is one of the most tumultuous times on record in the global financial markets.

The financial landscape is going through a period of upheaval with some major firms folding, other operations merging and a limited number of companies in both the Europe and the US, being rescued by governments.

BILLION-DOLLAR BAIL-OUTS

Governments have spent billions of dollars on rescue packages, led by the US with its $700bn rescue package.

soured from The BBC read full article

Recession and the housing market

As the housing market starts falling is this going to most difficult year for many home owners. As the prices fall by up to £3,000 per month, this is not the time move.

But as I’m sure you will have noticed a lot of houses that were for sale late last year are now for rent, people who have let their property will not find it an easy marked. If your house is on the market you would be very lucky to sell it, the biggest problem is agreeing a sale price and then all the people in the chain being able to to get the mortgages and financial security.

Almost 3,000 home owners are falling into negative equity every, negative equity is bad if you are planing or need to move. Negative equity means you are paying more for your mortgage then the value of your property.

But over a period of time house prices will increase after the low. I am not surprised this has happened to the housing market, the prices were getting so high and out of control. I know a lot of people hold the banks responsible for the housing situation, but we had a lot to do with it, people over estimated their salary with self certification and people mortgages them self’s up to the hilt.

read full article

Recession and the housing market

As the housing market starts falling is this going to most difficult year for many home owners. As the prices fall by up to £3,000 per month, this is not the time move.

But as I’m sure you will have noticed a lot of houses that were for sale late last year are now for rent, people who have let their property will not find it an easy marked. If your house is on the market you would be very lucky to sell it, the biggest problem is agreeing a sale price and then all the people in the chain being able to to get the mortgages and financial security.

Almost 3,000 home owners are falling into negative equity every, negative equity is bad if you are planing or need to move. Negative equity means you are paying more for your mortgage then the value of your property.

But over a period of time house prices will increase after the low. I am not surprised this has happened to the housing market, the prices were getting so high and out of control. I know a lot of people hold the banks responsible for the housing situation, but we had a lot to do with it, people over estimated their salary with self certification and people mortgages them self’s up to the hilt.

read full article

Obituary of the high street

I have created this page as a kind of joke, but I will update this as other high street shops fall into administration.

Let me know if you know of any other shops no longer operating - regardless of how big or small.

Obituary of the high street list

Obituary of the high street

I have created this page as a kind of joke, but I will update this as other high street shops fall into administration.

Let me know if you know of any other shops no longer operating - regardless of how big or small.

Obituary of the high street list

Recession in Japan is deepening, how is it effecting everyday people

As the recession is talking hold in Japan how will effect everyday people, it is thought the recession will effect people till 2010

sourced from the BBC read full article

Recession in Japan is deepening, how is it effecting everyday people

As the recession is talking hold in Japan how will effect everyday people, it is thought the recession will effect people till 2010

sourced from the BBC read full article